The CHP Blog
Rate Decisions, Elections, & Regulatory Capture
While it is unusual that I put out an update video early in the week, it became increasingly clear that expectation setting ahead of the next few weeks is necessary. Since the start of the year, I have alluded to the significance of the third quarter this year. I have proposed on numerous occasions, the weight of the evidence suggested that weakness would likely surface in markets as we entered late August through November. Not only is this proving to be true, but we are also receiving several new signals shining even more light on what we can expect ahead.
![Derailing our Train of [artificial] Thought](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ea9b56c737307794bcd0a42/1774864833272-4AWR8TCT8QULDBZJHXGW/b064cd5d-3537-4f2a-85f7-aa4163da4ead.png)
Derailing our Train of [artificial] Thought
it is my assertion that there is a bubble because most investors are asking the wrong question. However, I do not see this being a “reversion to the mean” bubble, rather it is an “innovation expansion bubble”. Yes, it will pop, but not everyone and everything will be impacted to the degree many fear; and there remains a good chance that even those who do suffer most, will be able to endure and come out ahead.
When Public Attention Meets Private Markets
With so much interest surrounding private assets, securities, and investments, you may be wondering, "Is this right for me?" Or maybe you are just wondering how this has become such a popular topic of conversation, seemingly out of nowhere. Casey Fulp, CFP® breaks down the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly side of Private Markets and helps shed light on how we got here. He also explains what you need to know if/when these start showing up in your employer retirement plan.
The Three Acts of Inflation
A dominant theme that we will be watching closely in 2025 is that of Reflation. In prior blog posts, emails, videos, etc. we have tried to shine a light on the fact that inflationary cycles tend to follow a fairly consistent pattern in history. I’ve often referred to this as the “3-Act Play”
Market Update & Commentary - September 9, 2022
What does the evidence suggest should happen in equity markets over the coming weeks and months? While we have no crystal ball, we do have some interesting signals.
Timely Observations - Selling pressure in Nasdaq 100
With selling pressures mounting for the Nasdaq 100, I wanted to offer a brief note on what I am seeing and what we may want to watch for in weeks ahead.